- Goldman says Brent will hit $80 even as Iranian supply returns to the market
- The bank said in a May 23 note that the market is now pricing a return of Iranian barrels by late summer but underestimating demand
- Goldman revised its non-OPEC production, and shale supply forecasts by 0.25 MMBbl/d, and 0.2 MMBbl/d in 2H2021 due to depressed activity levels
- Iran agreed to extend a key nuclear-monitoring pact with UN inspectors that would pave the way to revive a nuclear agreement - Bloomberg
- The compromise will continue storing camera data at key atomic installations for one more month while parties convene in Vienna to reach a consensus
- Reviving the nuclear deal would loosen sanctions on Iranian crude. The country has produced as much as 3.8 MMBbl/d in the past, which is 1.5 MMBbl/d above current levels
- The return of Iranian barrels could eventually derail the commodities supercycle thesis - Citibank
- The bank’s base case shows Brent reaching the mid-$70s/bbl range in 3Q2021, with markets still being tight
- There are scenarios with more downside risks, particularly in 2022, where prices could fall to low $60s or worse